Sunday, June 12, 2011

Beware of small sample sizes

The Atlanta Braves are currently on a 5-game win streak.  Over this time, they have outscored their opponents 24 to 11.  Over this time, the Braves' have been without three of their starting outfielders, Martin Prado, Jason Heyward, and Nate McLouth.  The Braves' offense has certainly been streaking, and it has people talking of if the Braves' offensive woes are in the past.

As a season progresses, even some of the worst offensive clubs have hot streaks where they could score an upwards of 40 runs in a week.  These runs are hardly ever sustainable, and over the course of an entire season these streaks even out to show a team's true talent level.

That being said, the Braves were projected to have one of the top offenses in the league.  With a combination of walks, hits, and timely home runs, they were in the top 5 in the National League just one year prior.  With the departures of Derrek Lee, Troy Glaus, Melky Cabrera and Rick Ankiel, combined with the additions of Freddie Freeman, Dan Uggla and the return of Nate McLouth, the Braves offense was seen to increase in talent.  Through the first two and a half months of the season, the Braves have not shown that same talent level that was projected for them.

Will these past five games break them out of their funk?  Will they go on a roll and be on the top of the National League in runs scored as they should be?  I am optimistic that they will turn things around, but three games against the Marlins and two games against the Astros may just be the Braves playing a hot hand.  Temper your expectations because over a six month season, there is much more to see.